Business Homework Solutions
Problem
#3861

Expansion decision making based on different factors.

A firm that plans to expand its product line must decide whether to build a small or a large facility to produce the new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the net present value after deducting for building costs will be $400,000. If demand is high, the firm can either maintain the small facility or expand it. Expansion would have a net present value of $450,000, and maintaining the small facility would have a net present value is $50,000.
If a large facility is built and demand is high, the estimated net present value is $800,000. If demand turns out to be low, the net present value will be -$10,000.
The probability that demand will be high is estimated to be .60, and the probability of low demand is estimated to be .40.

a. Analyze using a tree diagram.
b. Compute the EVPI. How could this information be used ?
c. Determine the range over which each alternative would be best in terms of the value of P(demand low).


Solution Summary

This problem uses a decision tree to come up with an optimal solution given the probabilities of different demands.

Solution
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