2. In a multicriteria decision problem
a. it is impossible to select a single decision alternative
b. the decision maker must evaluate each alternative
with respect to each criterion
c. successive decisions must be made over time
d. each of the above is true
3.
The first step in problem solving is
a. determination of the correct analytical solution
procedureP>
b. definition of decision variables
c. the identification of a difference between the
actual and desired state of affairs
d. implementation
4.
The terms ‘stochastic’ and ‘deterministic’ have the same meaning
in quantitative analysis.
a. True
b. False
5.
The most successful quantitative analysis will separate the analyst from
the managerial team until after the problem is fully structured.
a. True
b. False
6.
The relationship d = 5000 - 25p describes what happens to demand (d) as
price (p) varies. Here, price can vary between $10 and $50.
How many units can be sold at the $10 price?
a. 3750
b. 4750
c. 2750
d. 5750
7.
There is a fixed cost of $50,000 to start a production process. Once
the process has begun, the variable cost per unit is $25. The revenue
per unit is projected to be $45.
Find the break-even point.
a. 2850
b. 3000
c. 2500
d. 3500
8.
A small firm builds television antennas. The investment in plan and
equipment is $200,000. The variable cost per television antenna is
$500. The price of the television antenna is $1000. How many
television antennas would be needed for the firm to break even?
a. 400 television antennae
b. 600 television antennae
c. 200 television antennae
d. 650 television antennae
9.
In the set of all past due accounts, let the event A mean the account is
between 31 and 60 days past due and the event B mean the account is that
of a new customer. The complement of A is
a. all new customers
b. all accounts fewer than 31 or more than 60 days
past due
c. all accounts from new customers and all accounts
that are from 31 to 60 days past due
d. all new customers whose accounts are between 31
and 60 days past due
10.
B) = 0
a. A and B are independent events>
b. P(A) + P(B) = 1
c. A and B are mutually exclusive events
d. either P(A) = 0 or P(B) = 0
11.
When assigning subjective probabilities, use experience, intuition, and
any available data.
a. True
b. False
12.
There are two more assignments in a class before its end, and if you get
an A on at least one of them, you will get an A for the semester. Your
subjective assessment of your performance is
Event
Probability
A on paper and A on exam
.25
A on paper only
.10
A on exam only
.30
A on neither
.35
What is the probability of getting an A in the course?
a. .45
b. .55
c. .65
d. .75
13.
A medical research project examined the relationship between a
subject’s weight and recovery time from a surgical procedure, as shown
in the table below.
Underweight
Normal weight
Overweight
Less than 3 days
6
15
3
3 to 7 days
30
95
20
Over 7 days
14
40
27
Given that recovery takes over 7 days, what is the probability the
patient is overweight?
a. 73/200 =.365
b. 200/146=1.37
c. 146/200 = .73
d. 27/81=.333
14.
It is estimated that 3% of the athletes competing in a large tournament
are users of an illegal drug to enhance performance. The test for this
drug is 90% accurate. What is the probability that an athlete who
tests positive is actually a user?
a. .2177
b. .7823
c. .10885
d. .4354
15.
Experiments with repeated independent trials will be described by the
binomial distribution if
a. the trials are continuous
b. each trial result influences the next
c. the time between trials is constant
d. each trial has exactly two outcomes whose
probabilities do not change>
16.
When the exponential distribution probability is given as
9 ) = 1 - e-9/18
the average value for x is
a. 18
b. 9
c. 9/18
d. 1/2
17.
The weight of an object, measured to the nearest gram, is an example of
a. a continuous random variable
b. a discrete random variable
c. either a continuous or a discrete random variable,
depending on the weight of the object
d. either a continuous or a discrete random variable
depending on the units of measurement
18.
Z is a standard normal random variable. The P(z > 2.11) equals
a. 0.4821
b. 0.9821
c. 0.5
d. 0.0174
19.
Suppose that the arrival time for the next bus at a bus stop is
uniformly distributed between 1 and 25 minutes. The probability that
the bus will arrive within the next 5 minutes is 1/6.
a. True
b. False
20.
If the Poisson distribution describes the number of occurrences per
interval, the exponential distribution describes the length of the
interval between occurrences.
a. True
b. False
21.
A calculus instructor uses computer aided instruction and allows
students to take the midterm exam as many times as needed until a
passing grade is obtained. Following is a record of the number of
students in a class of 20 who took the test each number of times.
Students
Number of tests
10
1
7
2
2
3
1
4
Compute the variance.
Place answer here
22.
A process follows the binomial distribution with n = 8 and p = .3.
Find
P(x > 6) to 4 decimal places -- x. x x x x
Place answer here
23.
Assume that the time required to download a file from the Internet is
exponentially distributed with mean equal to 4 minutes. What is the
probability that a download will require at least 2 but not more than 4
minutes? (to five decimal places --- 0.xxxxx)
Place answer here
24.
Sensitivity analysis considers
a. how sensitive the decision maker is to risk
b. changes in the number of states of nature
c. changes in the values of the payoffs
d. changes in the available alternatives
25.
If P(high) = .3, P(low) = .7, P(favorable | high) = .9, and
P(unfavorable | low) = .6, then P(favorable) =
a .10
b. .27
c. .30
d. .55
26.
The probability distribution of the possible payoffs associated with a
decision alternative or a decision strategy is the
a. risk profile
b. expected value of sample information
c. influence diagram
d. payoff table
28.
The table shows both prospective profits and losses for a company,
depending on what decision is made and what state of nature occurs.
Use the information to determine what the company should do
if minimax regret is the strategy.
s1
s2
s3
d1
30
80
-30
d2
100
30
-40
d3
-80
-10
120
d4
20
20
20
a. d1
b. d2
c. d3
d. d4
29.
A payoff table is given as
s1
s2
s3
d1
250
750
500
d2
300
-250
1200
d3
500
500
600
The probability of each state is .2 .2 and .4 in order.
What is the EVPI?
a. 925
b. 240
c. 695
d. 320
30. The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth
a. the irregular component
b. wide seasonal variations
c. significant trend effects
d. long range forecasts
31.
Linear trend is calculated as Tt = 28.5 + .75t. The trend projection
for period 15 is
a. 11.25
b. 28.50
c. 39.75
d. 44.25
32.
A qualitative forecasting method that obtains forecasts through "group
consensus" is known as the
a. Autoregressive model
b. Delphi approach
c. mean absolute deviation
d. None of these alternatives is correct
33.
One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is the
a. smoothing constant
b. trend component
c. mean absolute deviation
d. seasonal index
34.
Quantitative forecasting methods do not require that patterns from the
past will necessarily continue in the future.
a. True
b. False
35.
All quarterly time series contain seasonality.
a. True
b. False
36. A four-period moving average forecast for period 10 would be found
by averaging the values from periods 10,9, 8, and 7.
a. True
b. False
37.
If the random variability in a time series is great, a high value should
be used to exponentially smooth out the fluctuations.
a. True
b. False
38.
Use a four period moving average to forecast attendance at baseball
games. Historical records show
5346,
7812, 6513, 5783, 5982, 6519, 6283, 5577, 6712, 7345
THE FORECAST FOR PERIOD 11 is?
a. 6272.75
b. 6479.25
c. 6749.25
d. 6090.25
39.
The average SAT verbal score for students from one high school over the
last ten exams is
508, 490,
502, 505, 493, 506, 492, 490, 503, 501
Do the
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& C2 = .91
S2 = .75
Your answer should be to 4 decimal places --- x. x x x x
41. If the chance of having a boy or girl is independent and is 50% for
each new birth, assume you have two kids. what is the probability that
the older one is girl?
a. .50
b. .75
c. .25
d. .33
Mathematics Homework Solutions
#45892
Multiple choice problems
(See attached file for full problem description)
---
2. In a multicriteria decision problem
a. it is impossible to select a single decision alternative
b. the decision maker must evaluate each alternative with respect to each criterion
c. successive decisions must be made over time
d. each of the above is true
3.
The first step in problem solving is
a. determination of the correct analytical solution procedureP>
b. definition of decision variables
c. the identification of a difference between the actual and desired state of affairs
d. implementation
4.
The terms 'stochastic' and 'deterministic' have the same meaning in quantitative analysis.
a. True
b. False
5.
The most successful quantitative analysis will separate the analyst from the managerial team until after the problem is fully structured.
a. True
b. False
6.
The relationship d = 5000 - 25p describes what happens to demand (d) as price (p) varies. Here, price can vary between $10 and $50.
How many units can be sold at the $10 price?
a. 3750
b. 4750
c. 2750
d. 5750
7.
There is a fixed cost of $50,000 to start a production process. Once the process has begun, the variable cost per unit is $25. The revenue per unit is projected to be $45.
Find the break-even point.
a. 2850
b. 3000
c. 2500
d. 3500
8.
A small firm builds television antennas. The investment in plan and equipment is $200,000. The variable cost per television antenna is $500. The price of the television antenna is $1000. How many television antennas would be needed for the firm to break even?
a. 400 television antennae
b. 600 television antennae
c. 200 television antennae
d. 650 television antennae
9.
In the set of all past due accounts, let the event A mean the account is between 31 and 60 days past due and the event B mean the account is that of a new customer. The complement of A is
a. all new customers
b. all accounts fewer than 31 or more than 60 days past due
c. all accounts from new customers and all accounts that are from 31 to 60 days past due
d. all new customers whose accounts are between 31 and 60 days past due
10.
If P(AB) = 0
a. A and B are independent events>
b. P(A) + P(B) = 1
c. A and B are mutually exclusive events
d. either P(A) = 0 or P(B) = 0
11.
When assigning subjective probabilities, use experience, intuition, and any available data.
a. True
b. False
12.
There are two more assignments in a class before its end, and if you get an A on at least one of them, you will get an A for the semester. Your subjective assessment of your performance is
Event Probability
A on paper and A on exam .25
A on paper only .10
A on exam only .30
A on neither .35
What is the probability of getting an A in the course?
a. .45
b. .55
c. .65
d. .75
13.
A medical research project examined the relationship between a subject's weight and recovery time from a surgical procedure, as shown in the table below.
Underweight Normal weight Overweight
Less than 3 days 6 15 3
3 to 7 days 30 95 20
Over 7 days 14 40 27
Given that recovery takes over 7 days, what is the probability the patient is overweight?
a. 73/200 =.365
b. 200/146=1.37
c. 146/200 = .73
d. 27/81=.333
14.
It is estimated that 3% of the athletes competing in a large tournament are users of an illegal drug to enhance performance. The test for this drug is 90% accurate. What is the probability that an athlete who tests positive is actually a user?
a. .2177
b. .7823
c. .10885
d. .4354
15.
Experiments with repeated independent trials will be described by the binomial distribution if
a. the trials are continuous
b. each trial result influences the next
c. the time between trials is constant
d. each trial has exactly two outcomes whose probabilities do not change>
16.
When the exponential distribution probability is given as
P(x 9 ) = 1 - e-9/18
the average value for x is
a. 18
b. 9
c. 9/18
d. 1/2
17.
The weight of an object, measured to the nearest gram, is an example of
a. a continuous random variable
b. a discrete random variable
c. either a continuous or a discrete random variable, depending on the weight of the object
d. either a continuous or a discrete random variable depending on the units of measurement
18.
Z is a standard normal random variable. The P(z > 2.11) equals
a. 0.4821
b. 0.9821
c. 0.5
d. 0.0174
19.
Suppose that the arrival time for the next bus at a bus stop is uniformly distributed between 1 and 25 minutes. The probability that the bus will arrive within the next 5 minutes is 1/6.
a. True
b. False
20.
If the Poisson distribution describes the number of occurrences per interval, the exponential distribution describes the length of the interval between occurrences.
a. True
b. False
21.
A calculus instructor uses computer aided instruction and allows students to take the midterm exam as many times as needed until a passing grade is obtained. Following is a record of the number of students in a class of 20 who took the test each number of times.
Students Number of tests
10 1
7 2
2 3
1 4
Compute the variance.
Place answer here
22.
A process follows the binomial distribution with n = 8 and p = .3. Find
P(x > 6) to 4 decimal places -- x. x x x x
Place answer here
23.
Assume that the time required to download a file from the Internet is exponentially distributed with mean equal to 4 minutes. What is the probability that a download will require at least 2 but not more than 4 minutes? (to five decimal places --- 0.xxxxx)
Place answer here
24.
Sensitivity analysis considers
a. how sensitive the decision maker is to risk
b. changes in the number of states of nature
c. changes in the values of the payoffs
d. changes in the available alternatives
25.
If P(high) = .3, P(low) = .7, P(favorable | high) = .9, and P(unfavorable | low) = .6, then P(favorable) =
a .10
b. .27
c. .30
d. .55
26.
The probability distribution of the possible payoffs associated with a decision alternative or a decision strategy is the
a. risk profile
b. expected value of sample information
c. influence diagram
d. payoff table
28.
The table shows both prospective profits and losses for a company, depending on what decision is made and what state of nature occurs. Use the information to determine what the company should do
if minimax regret is the strategy.
s1 s2 s3
d1 30 80 -30
d2 100 30 -40
d3 -80 -10 120
d4 20 20 20
a. d1
b. d2
c. d3
d. d4
29.
A payoff table is given as
s1 s2 s3
d1 250 750 500
d2 300 -250 1200
d3 500 500 600
The probability of each state is .2 .2 and .4 in order.
What is the EVPI?
a. 925
b. 240
c. 695
d. 320
30. The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth
a. the irregular component
b. wide seasonal variations
c. significant trend effects
d. long range forecasts
31.
Linear trend is calculated as Tt = 28.5 + .75t. The trend projection for period 15 is
a. 11.25
b. 28.50
c. 39.75
d. 44.25
32.
A qualitative forecasting method that obtains forecasts through "group consensus" is known as the
a. Autoregressive model
b. Delphi approach
c. mean absolute deviation
d. None of these alternatives is correct
33.
One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is the
a. smoothing constant
b. trend component
c. mean absolute deviation
d. seasonal index
34.
Quantitative forecasting methods do not require that patterns from the past will necessarily continue in the future.
a. True
b. False
35.
All quarterly time series contain seasonality.
a. True
b. False
36. A four-period moving average forecast for period 10 would be found by averaging the values from periods 10,9, 8, and 7.
a. True
b. False
37.
If the random variability in a time series is great, a high value should be used to exponentially smooth out the fluctuations.
a. True
b. False
38.
Use a four period moving average to forecast attendance at baseball games. Historical records show
5346, 7812, 6513, 5783, 5982, 6519, 6283, 5577, 6712, 7345
THE FORECAST FOR PERIOD 11 is?
a. 6272.75
b. 6479.25
c. 6749.25
d. 6090.25
39.
The average SAT verbal score for students from one high school over the last ten exams is
508, 490, 502, 505, 493, 506, 492, 490, 503, 501
Do the scores support an increasing or a decreasing trend?
a. increasing
b. decreasing
40.
Use the following to forecast a value for period 14, a second quarter.
T = 16.32 - .18(t)
C2 = .91
S2 = .75
Your answer should be to 4 decimal places --- x. x x x x
41. If the chance of having a boy or girl is independent and is 50% for each new birth, assume you have two kids. what is the probability that the older one is girl?
a. .50
b. .75
c. .25
d. .33
---
(See attached file for full problem description)
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