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Simulation Using Random Digits Table

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In an effort to boost sales, Probably Breakfast Enterprises started adding prizes in their cereal boxes. 40% of the boxes contain a toy Cat. 50% of the boxes contain a toy giraffe. And, 10% of the boxes have a spoon in case you lost yours. Conduct a simulation to find out how many boxes on average one would need to buy to ensure you have at least one of each prize. Use the table in #1 to start the 7-step process of carrying out a simulation. A random digits table is provided to aid in conducting 5 trials.

Random digits table #1:

95592 94007 69971 91481 60779 53791 1297 59335 88804 04634

71197 19352 73089 84898 45785 62568 70206 40325 03699 71080

22553 11486 11776 45149 32992 75730 66280 03819 56202 02938

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Solution Summary

The random digits table used is shown in the solution. Step-by-step explanations for each step of the simulation are given.

Solution Preview

Random digits table #1:

95592 94007 69971 91481 60779 53791 1297 59335 88804 04634

71197 19352 73089 84898 45785 62568 70206 40325 03699 71080

22553 11486 11776 45149 32992 75730 66280 03819 56202 02938

The 7 steps for carrying out a simulation are:
1. Identify the real-world activity that is to be repeated
2. Link the activity to one or more random numbers
3. Describe how you will use the random number assignment to complete a full trial
4. State the response variable
5. Run several trials
6. Collect a summarize the results of all the trials
7. State your conclusion

We will do the steps one at a time, in order.

Step 1) The real-world activity is to open cereal boxes until I get at least one of each toy (i.e. one Cat, one Giraffe and one Spoon). Record the number of boxes that were opened. Repeat this process a few times.

Step 2) We assign digits to the Cat, Giraffe and Spoon.

Since 40% of the boxes contain a toy Cat, the Cat shall be assigned 4 different digits.
Since ...

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  • MSc, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona
  • MBA, University of California, Riverside
  • BSc, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona
  • BSc, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona
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  • "Hello, thank you for your answer for my probability question. However, I think you interpreted the second and third question differently than was meant, as the assumption still stands that a person still independently ranks the n options first. The probability I am after is the probability that this independently determined ranking then is equal to one of the p fixed rankings. Similarly for the third question, where the x people choose their ranking independently, and then I want the probability that for x people this is equal to one particular ranking. I was wondering if you could help me with this. "
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